• Drought - Wikipedia
  • Trees are harvested then replanted

It’s a cycle nearly as old as human history

Plow, plant, harvest, and repeat

Jun 16, 2013 · Modern day rationing

I’m not a Catholic so I rarely listen to the Pope
Starting in 2006 and lasting through 2011, Syria suffered the worst long-term drought and the most severe set of crop failures in recorded history. The decrease in water availability, water mismanagement, agricultural failures, and related economic deterioration contributed to population dislocations and the migration of rural communities to nearby cities. These factors further contributed to urban unemployment, economic dislocations, food insecurity for more than a million people, and subsequent social unrest.

But I know a few people who are Catholic

Coffee roasting terminology. Coffee term descriptions and illustrations.

There is evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict.


Harvest Time | Keep Believing Ministries

Famine menaces 20m people in Africa and Yemen - Return …
Despite growing water scarcity and frequent droughts, the government of President Hafez al-Assad (1971−2000) initiated policies to further increase agricultural production, including land redistribution and irrigation projects, quota systems, and subsidies for diesel fuel to garner the support of rural constituents (5–9). These policies endangered Syria’s water security by exploiting limited land and water resources without regard for sustainability (10).

For the last few decades food prices have been largely independent of droughts due to international trade. In the early 1970s the price of potatoes went through the roof in the UK due to a poor harvest. Now we would not notice.
On the other hand it is human interventions that affect prices. In Russia food prices have risen steeply this year due to sanctions, to the benefit of farmers at the expense of consumers. Due to Russia being a net importer from the EU, some food prices in have fallen in Britain to the benefit of consumers at the expense of farmers.
But there is one food that is not affected by sanctions, but has fallen sharply this year – sugar. In January most in supermarkets it was 85p for a kilo bag. Now it is 39-59p. The other use for sugar in Brazil and other places is ethanol. When oil prices went up so did ethanol, though it was always slightly cheaper. Back in 2004 for instance, I the cheapest ethanol was 20p a litre, whilst gasoline (with a proportion of ethanol) was 35p. When the oil price went up, ethanol tracked it.

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So it wasn’t like there was a drought right before the first demos. Yes that rain was too late for that first 2010 harvest and many farmers had already moved to cities so I guess the argument would be that the 2007-2010 drought caused social change which eventually at the end of the tunnel caused ISIS..No BS on that see #3 above

The Next Green Revolution - National Geographic

Drought ? #1 A lack of water and drought are NOT the same thing !
#2 Neither does rain mean water problems are over, as rain today only benefits the NEXT seasons harvest
that water shortages are part of the culture even before the drought
“the water crisis in the country predates the current cycle of drought, ” ..”The loss of aquifers such as the Golan Heights and the depletion of” the rivers.

Drought, Climate, War, Terrorism, and Syria | Energy …

The chart is modified from the 2015 report. I have added a few more drought years. During drought years wheat production can fall by 50%. Could easily add more pre-1972. The bottom line is that Syria periodically experiences drought that impacts wheat production. I see little evidence of this getting worse with time. Somewhat surprisingly 2015 looks like a “bumper harvest” – not sure what to make of that.

Famine menaces 20m people in Africa and Yemen - …

Syria’s economy is under extreme pressure owing to coordinated international sanctions (U.S., European, Japan, and Arab-Turkish) which include an embargo on oil exports, seizure of foreign-held Syrian assets, and severe restrictions on trade, financial transactions, and investment. The net result of international actions has been to trigger a major depreciation in the Syrian currency (50%), dramatically increase domestic inflation, significantly deplete government financial reserves, and seriously restrict trade. Though current sanctions do not officially target food or agricultural commodities, restrictions imposed on Syrian banks and trading firms have somewhat impeded the country’s ability to finance needed imports. According to the Syrian Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) the nation’s inflation rate stood at 21.0 percent in February 2012, which was sharply higher than last year owing to escalating food and fuel prices. The CBS also reported that monthly food price inflation reached 25.8 percent in February, compared to an average of 8 percent in 2011. Wheat is the most important staple food commodity in the country and is consumed primarily as bread. It is also the country’s only strategic food security commodity, and is treated accordingly. The government controls the pricing of wheat, flour, and bread throughout the entire public and private sector marketing chain. Wheat production is heavily subsidized through the government’s payment of premium (above international market) prices to growers, while bread consumption is also heavily subsidized through government imposed price controls (averaging 20% below the cost of production). The majority of national flour milling capacity and bakeries producing standard bread products are also in the hands of government-run enterprises, so there is strict official control over the supply of this staple food product. Local sources inside Syria currently indicate that with the exception of areas experiencing active conflict, the bread supply is near normal, with subsidized bread selling for roughly 8 Syrian Pounds per kg (11 U.S. cents).